My friend from a local poker league knows more about horses that anyone I know. The man has shared his thoughts for the big races and he doesn’t mind if I share his latest here with you.
Thank you to The Furg – aka the Godfather for these thoughts.
Preliminary analysis on this year’s Kentucky Derby
Post positions have not yet been drawn nor final jockey assignments been posted, but right now it looks this way to me:
Over the past 7 years the derby winner has come into the race after winning either the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby or Arkansas Derby. So, my focus is on Omaha Beach, Maximum Security and Roadster. The 1st 2 are front runners, while Roadster came from off the pace to win the S.A. Derby. If Omaha Beach and Maximum Security go head to head and set fast early fractions, Roadster has the best chance to run them both down in the stretch.
As always, in horse racing, one never knows how the race will set up, who will get interfered with, but my feeling, right now is that Roadster and Omaha Beach have the best shot to bring home the roses.
This opinion could change after I have time to review the past performances of the rest of the field and see what jockeys are aboard each horse, because, very seldom does a jockey not in the top 10 ever bring home the K.D. winner. I’ll post my final projection next Thursday.
****5/2/2019 update from The Furg:
Given some unforeseen events, like rain predicted, sloppy track and the scratch of Omaha Beach these are my top 5 picks for the Derby…….Improbable, Maximum Security, Win Win Win, Hatkal & Country House.
5/3/2019 Update / Longshot from The Furg:
If you want action on a real long shot that could surprise, bet $2 place show on #19, Spinoff. He;ll be flying through the stretch, but may have been too far back to cop the 1st spot
Good luck out there!