Entertainment betting has become more popular over the past few years. So, perhaps it is no surprise that it is now possible to wager on the next winner of the Nobel Prize. This, of course, is one of the most prestigious of all awards that anyone can win.
The overwhelming majority of us will never win a Nobel prize ourselves. But winning a nice payout by correctly predicting a Nobel prize winner can sure be a nice consolation.
This post will explain how to bet on the winner of the Nobel prize. Below, we point you toward where you can wager on Nobel prize winners. Following our suggested betting sites, you can find our full guide that explains the selection process, categories, strategies, and more!
Where to Wager on the Nobel Prize Winner
At the time of this writing, Bovada is the site where we are seeing wagering on the Nobel Prize, specifically the Nobel Literature Prize and the Nobel Peace Prize. Both selections are in November, so these are futures (I am writing this at the start of August).
Bovada is one of the best sites we have found for entertainment betting. Basically, no matter what you want to wager on, if you are going to find it anywhere, it will probably be at Bovada. This is also one of the best all-around US-facing sportsbooks, which is why they have become one of the top names in betting here and elsewhere around the globe.
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Other Sportsbooks for Nobel Prize Betting
At this time we are writing this, we are not seeing Nobel Prize betting at any other sportsbooks. But we have heard that there are 2 other sports betting sites we recommend that offer Nobel Prize betting, BetOnline and EveryGame.
Over at BetOnline you could look forward to a Welcome Bonus of up to $1,000, a Reload Bonus of 25% for the life of your account, and a $3,000 for use in the Casino. In fact, if you like to hunt down bonuses to go along with your gambling, BetOnline is among the best options with about 30 Different Promotions going on at all times for you to peruse through!
Over at EveryGame you could get in on some pretty great promotions as well. There’s a $500 Welcome Bonus for the Sportsbook that you could turn into $1,000 if you’re a crypto user, 4 Free NFL Bets, a Freeroll Poker Special for the sports fan, and you could even Win A Trip To The Super Bowl!
You might want to drop by these sites closer to the Nobel Prize selection periods. That might be when they finally post their odds.
What is the Nobel Prize?
Now that you know where you can bet on the Nobel Prize, let’s explain more about what the prize is and how it works. That way, you will have the foundational knowledge you need to start planning your bets.
The Nobel Prize actually refers to multiple prizes in a range of categories. Swedish scientist and industrialist Alfred Nobel established the prizes in his will in 1895. He declared that they should be bestowed upon “those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind.”
It took a few years before the Nobel Prizes were organized and began being awarded. The initial year for Nobel Prize awards was 1901.
The history of why Nobel established the prizes is a deeply ironic one. He was an armaments manufacturer and weapons inventor. His most well-known invention was dynamite.
In 1888, Nobel’s brother Ludvig died, and a French newspaper made a mistake. They accidentally printed their obituary for Alfred rather than the one for his brother. The title of the article was “The Merchant of Death is Dead.”
Nobel did not want people to remember him as the “Merchant of Death,” so he figured he had better do something about it. To that end, he came up with the Nobel Prizes. His will set aside 94% of his wealth for the awards. At the time he died, that amounted to about $186 million USD.
To carry out his wishes, the Nobel Foundation was established in 1900. A committee at the foundation selects the winners every year.
What do you actually receive if you happen to be a winner of the Nobel Prize?
- A diploma
- A green gold medal called a laureate
- A monetary prize
How much is the monetary prize? In 2021, it was 10,000,000 SEK. We are not sure what that was in USD based on exchange rates that year, but today, that would be equivalent to around $946,000 USD.
What are the Categories for the Nobel Prize?
Here are all the categories of Nobel Prizes that we see listed at the Nobel website:
- Physiology or Medicine
- Economic Sciences
Notably, the Economics Sciences Nobel Prizes did not exist until the central bank of Sweden decided to create them in 1968, which happened to be the bank’s 300th anniversary.
The existence of the Economics Sciences award is a bit controversial; descendent Peter Nobel has even called it a “false Nobel prize,” as he does not feel that economics is really a science.
How are Nobel Prize Winners Selected?
Now you know what prizes exist. But how does the selection process for Nobel Prize winners work?
- The Nobel Committee contacts about 3,000 people with nomination forms.
- The people who received the nomination forms fill them out and send their suggestions back to the committee.
- The committee takes a look at the nomination forms, and nominates about 300 people.
- The committee does not publicly or privately announce who made their list of nominations. The nominees have no idea they are even on the list.
- The committee puts together a report about the nomination list. They then send the list and report to the following institutions:
Usually, they do this in the September of the year before the year they will be awarding the prizes.
These are not random people, of course. They are people who work within the field in question, So, for example, for awards in the sciences, the committee will contact prominent people who work in the sciences.
Naturally, “peace” is not really a “field,” so that may leave you wondering who the committee sends nomination forms to when considering that award. Usually people who are or were on the Norwegian Nobel Committee are included, along with people who won Nobel Peace Prizes in the past, as well as various governments.
While a lot of these people will come from the nomination forms, the committee may also nominate some other people who were overlooked by those they sent out the forms to.
In fact, you cannot even see the list of nominees after the prize is awarded! The list is kept secret for exactly 50 years.
- Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences – Chemistry; Physics; Economics
- Nobel Assembly at the Karolinska Institute – Physiology / Medicine
- Swedish Academy – Literature
- Norwegian Nobel Committee – Peace
There can be up to three laureates and two works selected for every award each year.
In general, individuals are the only ones who can win Nobel Prizes, but there is an exception. An institution can receive the Peace Prize.
Can you win a Nobel Prize after your death? The Nobel Prize is intended for living recipients. Prior to 1974, it was permitted to award it to someone who was alive when they were nominated and died before the final selections were made. But since that year, this practice has been outlawed.
That said, Ralph M. Steinman won the Nobel Prize in October 2011 after he was deceased. But that was because when he was voted the winner, those participating did not know he was dead. They are not supposed to knowingly choose someone deceased (Steinman remained the winner that year).
So, that is useful to be aware of when you are considering who might win the Nobel Prize coming up.
Here are a few more important things to know about Nobel Prize selections:
- Time lag:
- Usually gives awards for lifetime achievements in Literature (and sometimes Peace), rather than honoring individuals for single significant works.
- Awards scientists based on the year of the recognition of their work, not the year they accomplished it.
- Sometimes candidates are nominated over and over again on various years, yet never selected. But this can actually influence future selections. For example, Mahatma Gandhi never won a Nobel Peace Prize despite repeat nominations. But in 1989, the committee awarded it to the 14th Dalai Lama in part to honor Gandhi.
- The Nobel Prize tends to be Eurocentric.
- If a specific work is being recognized, like a scientific discovery, the award can go to a team. But it can go to only up to three people on that team. If there are four or more people on that team, some will not receive the Nobel Prize, even if they made equal contributions. If a team member dies by the time that selections are occurring, that can also result in that person not receiving the honor.
- Although Nobel Prizes in the sciences can go to those who made discoveries or inventions, there is a prejudice in favor of discoveries (accounting for 77% of the awards in the physics category).
- Men are far more likely than women to receive Nobel Prizes in the sciences, going by historical statistics.
- It is very rare for a given person to win the Nobel Prize more than one time without being part of a team that won the award. In fact, only one example exists: Linus Pauling, who won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1954, followed by the Nobel Peace Prize in 1962. There are only a few other people who have won the prize twice (as part of a team at least one time).
- Statistically speaking, the country that Nobel winners are most likely to be from is the US. As of 2022, the US leads the pack with 403 winners.
- There does not have to be a winner for the each Nobel Prize every year. In fact, there are actually lots of years where there were no winners in specific categories.
- Nobel prize winners are typically impressive but sometimes they might rub you the wrong way. There is even a word for Nobel prize winners sometimes believing in unscientific ideas: “Nobel disease.” Basically, someone might win an award in economics while believing ridiculous things about science, or vice versa.
It is awkward for the Nobel Prize to go to someone whose achievements later are revealed to be overstated. To prevent this from happening, the Nobel Assembly:
So, say a physicist makes a discovery in the year 2025. But no one feels confident declaring that discovery to be factual and world-altering until 20 years later in 2045. That person might win the Nobel Prize in 2046 for the work they did clear back in 2025.
Nobel Prize Odds 2023
Nobel Literature Prize Winner 2023
- Haruki Murakami -125
- Can Xue +400
- Annie Proulx +1200
- Anne Carson +1800
- Gerald Murnane +1800
- Jon Fosse +1800
- Mircea Cartarescu +1800
- Ngugi Wa Thiong’o +1800
- Pierre Michon +1800
- Salman Rushdie +1800
- Thomas Pynchon +1800
- Colson Whitehead +2000
- Helene Cisoux +2000
- Edna O’Brien +2200
- Adonis +2500
- Emmanuel Carrere +2500
- Homero Aridjis +2500
- Laszlo Krasznahorkai +2500
- Dubravka Ugresic +3500
- Karl Ove Knausgard +3500
- Michel Houellebecq +3500
- Sebastian Barry +3500
- Ali Smith +4000
- Don DeLillo +4000
- Joyce Carol Oates +6000
- Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie +8000
- JK Rowling +8000
- Margaret Atwood +8000
- Paul Simon +8000
- Stephen King +8000
- Donna Tartt +10000
- Taylor Swift +10000
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2023
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy -250
- Alexei Navalny +1100
- Ilham Toti +1100
- Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya +1100
- Greta Thunberg +1200
- Simon Kofe +1400
- David Attenborough +1600
- ICC (International Criminal Court) +1600
- ICJ (International Court Of Justice) +1600
- Pope Francis +1600
- WHO (World Health Organization) +1600
- Agnes Chow +2000
- Alexis Tsipras +2000
- ECHR (European Court For Human Rights) +2000
- International Fact-Checking Network +2000
- Jacinda Ardern +2000
- January 6th Committee +2000
- Joe Biden +2000
- Maggie Gobran +2000
- Martin Lee +2000
- Nathan Law +3500
- Grandmothers Of The Plaza De Mayo +4000
- Donald Trump +5000
- Noam Chomsky +5000
It’s interesting to note that there really are only a few strong contenders in both categories according to the odds.
While the winner of the Nobel Prize may be someone who is on each list, keep in mind that either or both of the winners might end up being people who are not even listed here (in which case all bets will lose).
Strategies for Betting on the Nobel Prize Winner
Now that you know more about the Nobel selection process and you have had a chance to view recent Nobel Prize betting odds, let’s share some strategies that can help you give yourself the best shot at winning your wagers.
- Understand How Nobel Prize Selection Works
If you have read this entire post to this point, you have at least a basic understanding of the Nobel prize selection process and rules. But the more you learn about the specifics of the process and the selection criteria, the easier it will be for you to make educated guesses about who the upcoming prize winners could be.
- Consider Past Selections
As we have discussed, there are some patterns and commonalities in the selections, like the tendency for Nobel Prize winners to be in the US or Europe (though you will notice that in recent years, the awards have been more diverse). So, taking the time to look at lists of past winners and spot patterns can help you to predict who will win the Nobel Prize next.
For your convenience, here are some lists of some of the most recent winners of Nobel Prizes in different categories.
Past Nobel Prize Winners in Literature
- 2022: Annie Ernaux
- 2021: Abdulrazak Gurnah
- 2020: Louise Glück
- 2019: Peter Handke
- 2018: Olga Tokarczuk
- 2017: Kazuo Ishiguro
- 2016: Bob Dylan
- 2015: Svetlana Alexievich
- 2014: Patrick Modiano
- 2013: Alice Munro
- 2012: Mo Yan
- 2011: Tomas Tranströmer
- 2010: Mario Vargas Llosa
Past Nobel Prize Winners in Peace
- 2022: Ales Bialiatski, Memorial, and Centre for Civil Liberties
- 2021: Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov
- 2020: World Food Programme
- 2019: Abiy Ahmed
- 2018: Nadia Murad and Denis Mukwege
- 2017: International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons
- 2016: Juan Manuel Santos
- 2015: Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet
- 2014: Kailash Satyarthi and Malala Yousafzai
- 2013: Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
- 2012: European Union
- 2011: Tawakkul Karman, Leymah Gbowee, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
- 2010: Liu Xiaobo
Past Nobel Prize Winners in Physics
- 2022: Anton Zeilinger, John Clauser, Alain Aspect
- 2021: Giorgio Parisi, Klaus Hasselmann, Syukuro Manabe
- 2020: Andrea Ghez, Reinhard Genzel, Roger Penrose
- 2019: James Peebles, Didier Queloz, Michel Mayor
- 2018: Donna Strickland, Gerard Mourou, Arthur Ashkin
- 2017: Barry Barish, Kip Throne, Rainer Weiss
- 2016: John M. Kosterlitz, F. Duncan M. Haldane, David J. Thouless
- 2015: Takaaki Kajita, Arthur B. McDonald
- 2014: Shuji Nakamura, Hiroshi Amano, Isamu Akasaki
- 2013: Peter Higgs, Francois Englert
- 2012: David J. Wineland, Serge Haroche
- 2011: Adam G. Riess, Brian P. Schmidt, Saul Perimutter
- 2010: Konstantin Novoselov, Andre Geim
You will notice that with the science awards, it is most common for teams to win, rather than individuals. There are some years though where individuals and/or different teams won.
For instance, take the year 2019, when a team composed of Didier Queloz and Michel Mayor won, but so did James Peebles on his own.
- Focus On Current Events
With the Nobel Peace Prize in particular, keeping apprised of current events as they unfold during the year may help you to make predictions about the next winner.
The winner(s) for the Nobel Peace Prize may or may not be incredibly famous worldwide.
Keep in mind that despite the historically US and Eurocentric nature of the awards, we are now seeing them distributed more equitably around the globe.
So, wherever you live, do not assume that the Nobel Peace Prize winner is going to be someone from your region.
The news you receive throughout the year is going to be biased toward your region. So, you may be missing out on key events going on elsewhere if you do not go out of your way to research news in other countries, and especially on other continents.
If you live in the US or Europe, make sure you keep up with events taking place in Asia, Africa and so on.
- Eliminate The Obvious
While it can be hard to guess exactly who will win a Nobel Peace Prize, sometimes you can guess who will not win.
To take a simple example from for 2023, we are seeing odds of +5000 for Donald Trump.
This makes Trump an underdog, of course, but the reality is that there is no reason whatsoever for his name to be on the list of prospective winners at all.
There is literally no way that Trump would win the Nobel Peace Prize; he has deliberately sown division and instigated violence, which makes him the opposite of a contender for the prize.
So, do not waste your money betting on candidates like this. If you are going to pick someone with long odds, at least make sure it is someone who actually has contributed in some way toward creating a more peaceful and harmonious world. That person might at least have a shot at being selected.
- Consider Placing Multiple Bets
There are several reasons why you may want to place more than one bet even for a single Nobel Prize selection:
It is hard to guess the winner: Because the nominations are not publicly announced, it can be really difficult to actually correctly pick the winner for a Nobel Prize. As a result, you might want to give yourself more than one chance to win by betting on more than one person.
More than one person can win: As you have learned, it is really common for there to be multiple winners for Nobel Prizes each year, especially in the sciences. If you pick more than one person, who knows? You could be super lucky and actually pick multiple correct selections!
Long odds can have big payoffs: Finally, if you are betting on individuals with long odds, then you only need to wager a small amount for the chance to win a large amount. Being as that is the case, it can be affordable to bet on multiple people.
- Shop The Odds, As Always
Our last item of advice is the one we usually conclude our betting guides with, and that is a reminder that different sportsbooks set different odds, and that the odds change over time.
So, instead of betting immediately at the first sportsbook where you check Nobel Prize odds, try checking them at a few different betting sites. Look for the best value before you place your wagers. You should make this a habit with all of your sports and entertainment bets.
Bet on the Next Nobel Prize Winner Now
It can be tricky to correctly predict who will win a Nobel Prize. But if you can, you might get a nice payout, especially if the winner turns out to be an underdog. To bet on the Nobel Prize now, click to sign up at our recommended sportsbooks.
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